盛装打扮好了，准备出发
中国的首都为2008年奥运盛装打扮，准备展现它增长的经济、现代的体育场馆以及闪耀的新设施。但缠绕这奥运火炬海外传递之旅的西藏示威是一个危险信号。
作为北京的常客，我看见北京在大规模的整顿和现代化工作中转变。它如今是世界上最青翠的首都，植物遍布每个角落。全新的首都国际机场三号航站楼格外令人印象深刻，比伦敦希思罗机场的全部都要大。道路、高速路和地铁设施拥挤，但足够了，向前迈了一大步。
当局正在彩排，设法处理好即将面临的人群处理流程。北京有许多崭新的世界级酒店以及A级办公大楼，它期望做生意。电力管制和停电已是过去的事情。中国政府的规划师所作出的经济准备和成就值得赞赏。
但火炬传递风波显示中国还没有为奥运建设之外的国际审查作好准备。尽管我们很容易同情藏人，但中国是一个主权国家，可以理解它对国际抱怨的不满。
如果2008年奥运的主办城市不是北京而是芝加哥，那会怎么样？鉴于美国如今的世界声望，我猜想反美示威活动将漫长而喧嚣。可能火炬的外国之旅不再是一个好主意。
这些示威让中国困窘。但示威极可能减少而不是增加中国在一系列问题上与西方协商、打交道的兴趣，而不是令中国软化其西藏政策。这存在经济风险。中国已经建议抵制法国产品，以抗议巴黎的示威活动。这听起来像是空谈，但只有时间才能告诉我们是不是空谈。
最后一个问题：中国经济会不会在2009年蒙受后奥运衰退？
可能吧，但不是因为奥运。中国13亿人有2000万在北京，比例跟1996年亚特兰大奥运时亚特兰大人口（400万）占全美人口（2.9亿）的比例相当。美国经济没有蒙受后亚特兰大挫折，中国在2008年北京奥运之后也不会。我预计在2008年、2009年和2010年，中国仍然是世界增长最快的经济体。如果奥运的骚动过于激烈，以致于共赢的经济关系出轨，造成大家的损失，那将是一个耻辱。（作者 Donald H. Straszheim）
原文地址：http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/04/16/china-environment-olympics-oped-cx_dhs_0416china.html
原文：
China's capital is all dressed up for the 2008 Olympics, ready to show off its growing economy, modern sports venues and gleaming new infrastructure. But the Tibet-centered demonstrations surrounding the overseas Olympic torch tour are a red flag.
As a regular visitor, I have seen Beijing transformed in a massive cleanup and modernization effort. It is now one of the greener capitals in the world, with planting on every little spot of land. The brand new Beijing Capital International Airport's Terminal 3 is extraordinarily impressive and larger than all of London's Heathrow Airport. The road, highway and subway infrastructure is crowded but adequate and a great step forward.
The authorities are conducting dress rehearsals to try to smooth the upcoming crowd-handling process. With many gleaming, new world-class hotels and class "A" office buildings, Beijing is looking to do business. Electrical blackouts and brownouts are a thing of the past. The planners in China's government deserve great credit for their economic preparation and achievements.
But the ruckus over the Tibet demonstrations on the torch tour reveals that China is not yet ready for much international scrutiny beyond the Olympic construction. There is no point in cataloging the grievances here. While it's easy to sympathize with the Tibetans, China is a sovereign nation and is understandably displeased with these international complaints.
Anyone holding up a "Free Tibet" sign at the Games is likely to be dealt with promptly by the authorities. Demonstrators may get their 10 seconds of international TV fame, but they likely won't see any more of the Games.
Those with media passes to cover sports will write and report on non-sports activities at their peril. And it is possible that some disruption to the Games might even damage various multi-million dollar sponsors.
How are the Tibet stories playing? China's media remains controlled by the government. Last week, at the height of the Tibet demonstrations in Paris, London and San Francisco, I was watching the news (BBC and CNN) from my Western-style Beijing hotel. As soon as the news report turned to the Tibet demonstrations, the screen went blank, only to turn back to regular programming in two minutes or so when the Tibet news was over. The censors are alert and on the job.
Except for a small percentage of the population, the Chinese people are not even aware of the recent Tibet and torch-tour events. The people regard the events in Tibet as internal matters and simply can't fathom these foreign complaints. By the way, the coverage of the torch tour on government-controlled Central China Television generally showed positive scenes in various world cities--with no recognition of the accompanying unrest.
Surely the International Olympic Committee is thinking carefully about its 2016 host-city selection, to be made in October 2009. It is deciding between seven cities in Azerbaijan, the U.S. (Chicago), Qatar, Spain, Czech Republic, Brazil and Japan.
What if Chicago, not Beijing, were the 2008 host city? Given America's standing in the world today, my guess is that the anti-American demonstrations would be long and loud. Maybe a foreign torch tour is not such a good idea anymore.
China has been embarrassed by the demonstrations. But rather than softening China on its Tibet policy, the protests will most likely make China less, not more, interested in negotiating and dealing with the West on a range of issues. This is the economic risk. Already, China has recommended a boycott of French-made products in protest over the Paris demonstrations. This sounds like empty talk, but only time will tell.
Heroic short-term efforts are planned to clean up Beijing's truly terrible air pollution problem like, for example, curtailed vehicle traffic and shutting down polluting factories.
I can't imagine these efforts will do much good. It would not be a surprise if the International Olympic Committee decided to not run a marathon (a first in the modern Olympic Games) because of concern for the athletes' health. Several countries have talked about housing their endurance athletes in Seoul or elsewhere; they would come to Beijing just for their particular event or for ceremonial purposes and then hustle out for more livable air.
One last item: Will China's economy suffer a 2009 post-Olympics fall?
Perhaps, but not because of the Games. Beijing contains 20 million of China's population of 1.3 billion--about the same proportion as Atlanta's 4 million of the U.S. population of 290 million at the time of the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. The U.S. economy did not suffer a post-Atlanta slowdown, and China won't suffer after the 2008 Beijing Olympics. I expect China to remain the fastest-growing economy in the world during 2008, 2009 and 2010, as has been the case every year since 2000. It would be a shame if the uproar on these games became so fierce that improving economic relations--where everybody wins--were derailed to everyone’s detriment.
Donald H. Straszheim is vice chairman of Roth Capital Partners in Los Angeles, former global chief economist at Merrill Lynch, a visiting scholar at the University of California-Los Angeles Anderson School of Management and a longtime China specialist. He previously served as president of the Milken Institute and joined Roth in 2006 to spearhead the company's China initiatives.