韩中FTA的红色警报
来源：韩国《中央日报》
当总统李明博访问中国，韩国与中国之间的自由贸易协定（FTA）再次浮出水面。两国的私有领域已经就FTA进行两年的联合研究。
如今北京正在召开这次研究的最后一场会议，与会者来自公有和私有领域。研究关注FTA的经济效应，可能的范围，对不同行业的潜在影响，以及保护私人制造商的措施。很快就会有结论。
中国对双边贸易协议的态度比我们积极得多。这些协定的效应很难预先评估。然而，考虑到两国之间的贸易架构，在农产品和渔业方面，中国比我们有竞争力得多。这些领域的FTA几乎肯定会损害韩国。因此，韩国非常谨慎。
总体而言，当一个国家寻求与另一个国家缔结FTA，主要目标是经济，但FTA也包含战略因素，例如保障国家的生存、追求繁荣和影响力。从这方面来看，中国寻求与韩国缔结FTA的原因可作如下归结：
首先是经济利益。中国追求持续经济增长和发展，而韩中FTA可以实现两国经济的互补。中国计划向韩国学习中间技术（intermediate technology）和管理技巧，以推动产业发展，增强竞争力。
韩国的发展模式不像美国自由市场模式那么有政治和经济风险压力。中国希望成功开展与韩国的FTA，期望这个地区的其他国家加入由韩中两国引领的经济集团。
韩中之间的FTA将肯定增加两国之间的经济合作，对中国经济有积极效应，但这种效应不会大得足以保证强大的影响力。此外，在没有FTA的情况下，韩中经济接触与合作已经不断扩大，而且两国经济越来越相互依赖。中国希望通过签署FTA增加韩中经济的相互依赖性。
同时，它计划通过加强与韩国、朝鲜的合作，保障对朝鲜半岛的影响力。对中国而言，朝鲜半岛在地缘政治上是邻国，而且中国与美国、俄罗斯和日本等强大国家的利益在朝鲜半岛汇聚。因此，在保障稳定环境方面，与韩国缔结FTA很重要。
在某种程度上，中国寻求与韩国缔结FTA，可能是回应韩美FTA。中国认为韩美贸易协定是美国制约中国的方式。因此中国打算加强它与韩国的经济联系，以抵消美国在朝鲜半岛的影响力。
若中国通过韩中FTA加大它在朝鲜半岛的发言权，它可能进一步在东亚地区合作事务上带头。
韩国应该怎样回应中国的战略办法呢？有人主张，如果这是必然的趋势，那我们就顺势而为，继韩美FTA和潜在的韩欧贸易协定后组成多方FTA。还有人认为，既然可以预计到负面效果，没有理由在不采取安全措施的情况下追求FTA。
在韩中贸易协定可行性研究公布以后，两国将开始拉据战。在全球化当中，自由贸易协定是战略选择。所有市场经济国家面临这些选择，而最重要的事情是和民众沟通，向他们说明好处。
韩国在和其他国家谈判FTA时应该向中国展示它的谨慎。我们应该记住进口美国牛肉以及与美国缔结FTA问题引起的混乱，我们应该尽全力获得最积极的结果。（作者 Kang Jun-young）
英文原文地址：http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2891041
英文原文：Korea-China FTA red flags
China wants to increase economic interdependence between Korea and China by signing a free trade agreement.
June 13, 2008
The issue of a free trade agreement between Korea and China has surfaced again as President Lee Myung-bak visited China. The two countries’ private sectors have conducted a joint study on a free trade agreement for two years.
Now, the final conference of the study, which included both the public and private sectors, is being held in Beijing. The study focused on the economic effects of a free trade deal between the two countries, the possible scope of a deal, potential effects on different industries and measures to protect private manufacturers. The conclusions are to be released soon.
China has been far more active in pursuing a bilateral trade accord than we have. Effects of such deals are very difficult to estimate in advance.
However, considering the trade structure between Korea and China, China is much more competitive than us when it comes to agricultural products and fisheries.
These sectors will almost certainly be damaged in Korea by a free trade deal. Thus, Korea has been very careful about approaching an accord with China.
In general, when a country pursues a free trade agreement with another, the primary goal is economic, but a free trade agreement also has strategic factors, such as securing a country’s survival, and pursuing prosperity and influence.
In this sense, the reasons China is pushing for a free trade accord with Korea can be summarized as follows.
First, it is about economic benefits. China intends to pursue sustainable economic growth and development, using a Korea-China free trade agreement which would complement both countries’ economies. China plans to learn intermediate technology and management skills from Korea in order to advance its industries and enhance its competitiveness.
The Korean development model applies less pressure than the U.S. liberal market model, which poses political and economic risks. By successfully starting a free trade accord with Korea, China also expects other countries in the region to join an economic bloc led by the two nations.
A free trade agreement between Korea and China would certainly increase economic cooperation between the two countries and have positive effects on China’s economy, but the impact wouldn’t be so large as to be assured of a strong influence.
Besides, economic engagement and cooperation between the two countries are expanding already, without a free trade deal, and the two countries’ economies are growing increasingly dependent on each other.
China wants to increase economic interdependence between Korea and China by signing a free trade accord. At the same time, it plans to secure its influence on the Korean Peninsula by increasing cooperation between South Korea, North Korea and China, using its existing pull here.
For China, the Korean Peninsula is a neighboring country geographically, and at the same time China’s interests with strong countries like the United States, Russia and Japan meet on the Korean Peninsula.
Therefore, a free trade agreement with Korea is important in terms of securing a stable environment.
In a way, China’s pursuit of a free trade agreement with Korea could be a response to the Korea-U.S. free trade deal. China regards the Korea-U.S. trade accord as the United States’ way of keeping China in check. China thus intends to enhance its economic bonds with Korea in an attempt to offset U.S. influence on the Korean Peninsula.
A stronger say for China on the Korean Peninsula through a Korea-China FTA could lead to further moves by China to take the lead in regional cooperation in East Asia.
How should Korea respond to China’s strategic approach? Some maintain that if this trend is inevitable we should take it and form multiple free trade agreements after the Korea-U.S. FTA and a possible Korea-EU trade accord.
Others say that there is no reason to pursue it without any safety measures when negative effects are expected.
After the research into the viability of a Korea-China free trade agreement is released, the two countries will start a tug of war. Amid globalization, free trade agreements are strategic choices.
All countries with a market economy are faced with these choices, and as such the most important thing is to communicate with the people and persuade them of the benefits.
Korea should show China how careful it is when negotiating free trade agreements with other countries.
We should remember the chaos over the deal to import U.S. beef and the free trade agreement with the United States, and should do our best to get the most positive result possible.
*The writer is the director of the Research Center for International and area studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff.
by Kang Jun-young