废墟之上的新中国
来源： 美国《洛杉矶时报》网站
一个月前四川大地震导致近7万人死亡，这场危机的一些效应可能不见得比废墟长久，但是一些地震般剧烈的转变不可撤回地震撼中国政府和社会。
分析家说，地方政府官员协力应对地震的情况可能是短暂的，当数以十亿计的美元流入四川重建，腐败和权利感（sense of entitlement）复活。然而，一个持久的变化在于，长久以来强调集体主义的文化最近几周对个人的突出关注。中国总理温家宝亲自关心灾民，而且他提醒军队首先要对公众负责，而不是其他。他说：“是人民在养你们。”这定下了调子。
布鲁金斯研究所高级研究员李成（音译，Cheng Li）表示，重视人的生命以及“以人为本”的主调变得真实，那是一个根本性的变化。最初几周电视台全天候的报道强调中国普通民众的困境，叙事感人。社会摒弃生产数字和领导人参观工厂的枯燥画面，真是令人激动。
尽管中国多年来一直在摆脱集体主义，但直到现在，很多个人表达指向的是消费选择：美容护理、买房、股票等。
看到衣着考究的年轻城市人表现出源源不断的同情与奉献，老一辈的中国人集体松了一口气，他们曾担心年轻一代自私、缺乏社会意识。中国人民大学社会学家李路路（Li Lulu）表示，尽管这一代人的主要关注点仍然是自己，赚钱，追求自己的事业，但危机揭示了他们关心社会和国家的另一面。
分析家认为，另一个似乎可以持久的变化是政府愿意允许外国人道救援工作人员、甚至外国士兵进入中国领土。表面上是一小步，但这显示中国更加自信，有能力接受援助，而不认为援助会威胁国家主权和民族自豪感。
有人认为，同样重要的是，地震唤醒更加明确的国家认同意识。这增强团结感——现在常常听到“我们中国人”这种说法。
这和过去尖锐的民族主义爆发不同。这种集体认同感可能引导渐进的政改——“我们中国人”值得拥有一个不那么腐败的体系。但分析家认为这也可能导致现状的巩固——“我们中国人”不应该改变共产主义政府，因为它的反应很好。加州大学伯克利分校的中国互联网项目负责任肖强（音译，Xiao Qiang）认为这很复杂，方向仍不明确。
其他持久的变化包括更明确地要求政府问责（虽然是有限度的）。分析家认为，中国政府在未来几个月如何应对地震所反映的敏感问题，将透露中国政治现代化的很多情况。
总理温家宝和中央政府对地震迅速且总体上有效率的回应为他们集合了大量的善意。这让他们处于理想的位置，可以要求地方官员负责。有人认为这将赋予政府“以人为本”口号真实意义。
但一些分析家怀疑政府会否改变以往做法，全面调查问题。真正的改革是困难的，因为北京不仅要为重建提供大量资金，而且当大量重建资金流经地方官员的手，要让公民社会和媒体发挥更大的监督作用。
汕头大学法学院院长杜钢建（Du Gangjian）表示，在现行的政治制度和环境下，他不指望政府有很多反思。“在党和政府根据法治运作以前，我不指望有多大的变化。”（作者 Mark Magnier）
译文为摘译，英文原文地址：http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-fg-lasting17-2008jun17,0,6989554.story
英文原文：
A new China appears amid quake rubble
Some of the change in the wake of the catastrophe may be short-lived, but some, such as the focus on the individual, outpourings of empathy, and an openness to foreign aid, appear lasting, analysts say.
By Mark Magnier, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
June 17, 2008
BEIJING -- One month after a massive earthquake killed nearly 70,000 people, some of the effects of the crisis may hardly outlast the rubble, even as other seismic shifts irrevocably shake the Chinese government and society.
The cooperative response of local government officials to the quake will probably be short-lived, analysts said, as corruption and a sense of entitlement resurge just as billions of dollars flow into Sichuan province for reconstruction.
One lasting change, however, is the prominent focus in recent weeks on the individual in a culture that has long emphasized collectivism. The tone was set by Premier Wen Jiabao's personal attention to victims in the wreckage and his well-publicized reminder that the army's first responsibility was to the public, not the other way around. "It is the people who are feeding you," he reportedly said.
"The value put on human life and 'people-centered' themes became real," said Cheng Li, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution. "That's a fundamental change."
Round-the-clock television coverage during the first few weeks highlighted the plight of ordinary Chinese, images interspersed with emotional narratives and family stories. This is heady stuff for a society weaned on production figures and boring news clips of its leaders on factory tours.
Although China has been moving away from collectivism for years, much of the personal expression until now has been directed at consumer choice: beauty treatments, buying condos, owning more stocks.
Watching the outpouring of empathy and sacrifice by well-dressed young urbanites, older Chinese have heaved a collective sigh of relief, their concern blunted that the younger generation was selfish and lacked social awareness.
"While the primary focus for this generation is still on themselves, making money and pursuing their careers, the crisis has also revealed another side," said Li Lulu, a sociologist at People's University in Beijing. "It's showed they are also concerned with society and the nation."
Another change that appears to be durable, analysts said, is the government's willingness to allow foreign humanitarian aid workers, even foreign soldiers, on Chinese soil. Ostensibly a small step, it suggests a more confident nation able to accept assistance without viewing it as a threat to sovereignty and national pride.
Also significant, some add, is a more pronounced sense of national identity seen in the earthquake's wake. This has reinforced a sense of unity -- "We Chinese" is now frequently heard.
This contrasts with past outbursts of nationalism that tended to carry a sharper edge, as seen directed against the United States after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's mistaken bombing in 1999 of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, capital of the then-Yugoslavia, or even this year, against foreigners and overseas media after pro-Tibet protests disrupted the Olympic torch relay ahead of the Summer Games in Beijing.
This sense of collective identity could lead to gradual political reform -- "We Chinese" deserve a less corrupt system and school construction that won't so easily buckle in an earthquake. But it also could lead to a strengthening of the status quo, analysts said -- "We Chinese" shouldn't change our Communist government since it responded so well.
"It's complicated and the direction isn't clear," said Xiao Qiang, head of the China Internet Project at UC Berkeley. "But what is clear is that there's much more 'We Chinese' this and 'We Chinese' that."
Other lasting, if slower-brewing, changes include more pronounced demands for government accountability, albeit within limits.
"In the first two weeks, it was all about touching media stories. But then people started asking more tough questions about poor construction standards, the government's slow response and the lack of advance warning," said Joseph Cheng, a political scientist at the City University of Hong Kong. "It's no longer possible in such a large disaster to stop people from asking questions."
But few expect those questions to change how local governments respond to citizen complaints.
"This will most likely go back to business as usual after the attention of the central government and the press shift elsewhere," said Minxin Pei, director of the China program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
Experts also said they expected little lasting accountability of the donations and overseas aid, despite official calls for transparency and an end to corruption. By June 11, China had received $6.4 billion from donors here and abroad.
Beijing continues to face great anger from parents whose children died in the rubble of collapsed schools even as many neighboring buildings appeared to weather the temblor relatively intact.
"This is a perilous issue if not handled well," said Wenran Jiang, a professor at Canada's University of Alberta.
"These parents represent an extremely powerful force. They're looking for responsibility."
This has led to calls at home and abroad for a thorough investigation of shoddy construction, including a close look at whether local officials pocketed funds that should have gone into steel reinforcements and better cement.
"We will wait for the investigation," said Chen Xuefen, 32, who lost her son, Jing Chung, 11, in the collapse of his elementary school. "If these are not satisfactory, we'll go to court. We no longer trust the local government."
How the government reacts in the coming months on this sensitive issue will tell a lot about China's political modernization, analysts said.
Premier Wen and the central government have built up a large reserve of goodwill with their rapid and generally effective response to the earthquake. This puts them in an ideal position to demand answers from local governments about shoddy construction and accountability, which, some said, would give real meaning to the administration's "people first" slogan.
"The thing about the communist system is, they can get this done," said Ying Chan, journalism school dean at Shantou University in the southeastern province of Guangdong. "They can order a work team and impound evidence if the government has the will."
But several analysts said they doubted that the government would change its ways and fully investigate the problems. Ultimately it will probably pay off and intimidate parents, cover up the issue, selectively loosen one-child rules and fire a few token officials, they said.
Real reform is difficult because Beijing would have to fund local school construction, an expensive proposition. It would also mean a bigger watchdog role for civic society and the media as billions of dollars in reconstruction funds flow through local officials' fingers.
"Under the existing political system and environment, I don't expect there to be a lot of self-reflection by the government," said Du Gangjian, dean of Shantou University's law school and head of a team drafting a disaster relief law. "Until the party and the government operate according to the rule by law, I don't expect much change."