中国恢复东亚中心地位
来源：英国《卫报》网站
长期以来，观察家认为中国大陆领导人面临的两个最困难的外交政策问题就是与台湾和与日本的关系。在过去几年，两种关系急剧恶化。陈水扁担任台湾总统期间北京与台北的关系跌至最低点。小泉纯一郎担任日本首相预示中日关系严重恶化。不过中国大陆今年与台湾、与日本的关系都出现非凡转机，几乎超出最来乐观的预期。
尽管中日关系自小泉2006年卸任以来就稳步提高，但在造成两国分歧的实质问题上没有多少进展。然而，18日出现大突破。在中日关系恶化之时，最明显的导火索就是东海纷争。中国无视日本的抗议，已经开始开发东海油气田，包括在日本宣称主权的海域。如今两国宣布它们将联合开发争议水域的两个油气田，暂时搁置主权纠纷。因此，两国之间最危险的潜在冲突源已经去除。
两国关系很微妙。它们是东亚两大国。它们是世界第二和第三大经济体。自1894至1895年中日战争以来，两国关系就总是充满仇恨，焦点是日本曾经侵略中国。一个多世纪以来，日本对这个邻国持极端怀疑的态度，但中国崛起迅速改变两国之间的势力平衡，向中国倾斜。日本越发焦虑。关键问题是日本能否顺应中国崛起成为地区主导大国的态势。中日协议是目前为止第一个积极的迹象，表明两国可能可以找到暂时的妥协。
如果说2008年中日关系大大改善，那台海关系则是彻底转变了。国民党3月取得立委选举大胜利，马英九当选台湾总统，这些完全改变台海氛围。马英九不提统一，但决心改善两岸关系。两岸经济关系可能越来越密切。台湾民众厌倦了陈水扁不断挑衅中国的那一套，越来越关心经济弊病以及促进与大陆兴旺经济的关系。
如今，台海两岸关系在可预见的将来进入相对温和阶段已非不可想象的事情。台湾主权的问题不大可能解决，但除此之外，两岸似乎完全有可能享受日益密切的关系。旅游业会快速增长，直航将变得普通，而且经济日渐融合似乎不可避免。由于台独威胁逐渐靠边站，北京领导人可以追求越来越务实的台海态度。在这样的背景下，它可能开始接受更富想象力的主权问题解决方案。
由于中国大陆与日本、台湾的关系迅速改善，与十年前的孤立相比，中国在东亚的地位迅速蜕变。它已经与东南亚的东盟国家建立非常好的关系，而且韩国也向中国靠拢。中国恢复了它历史悠久的、作为东亚中心的地位。（原标题：中国回到熟悉的领地；作者：Martin Jacques）
译文为摘译，英文原文地址：http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/19/china.japan
英文原文：
China is back on familiar territory
As relations warm with both Taiwan and Japan, China is resuming its centuries-old position as the linchpin of east Asia
Martin Jacques guardian.co.uk, Thursday June 19, 2008
Observers have long agreed that the two most difficult foreign policy questions that confronted the Chinese leadership were relations with Taiwan and with Japan. The last few years have seen both deteriorate markedly. The election of the nationalist Chen Shui-bian as president in 2000 and his re-election in 2004 was a nadir in the relationship between Taiwan and the mainland. The premiership of Junichiro Koizumi heralded a serious deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations, with Koizumi's insistence on an annual visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in his official capacity. Such was the growing antagonism between the two nations that in 2005 there was a wave of anti-Japanese demonstrations in major Chinese cities. This year, however, there has been an extraordinary turnaround in China's relations with both Taiwan and Japan which has exceeded all but the most optimistic expectations.
Although relations between Japan and China have been steadily improving since Koizumi left office in 2006, there has, until now, been little progress on the substantive, rather than symbolic, matters that have divided the two countries. The Japanese prime minister Yasuo Fukuda has declined to visit Yasukuni, as did his predecessor Shinzo Abe, while high-level contacts between the two countries have been resumed with clear signs of growing warmth. Yesterday, however, came the big breakthrough. As Sino-Japanese relations worsened, the most obvious flashpoint was their conflicting offshore claims in the east China Sea where significant oil and gas reserves are believed to exist. Ignoring Japanese protests, the Chinese had already begun exploration, including in waters claimed by Japan. Now the two countries have announced that they will undertake joint development of two gas fields in the disputed waters, while setting aside their territorial claims to be resolved at some point in the future. As a result, the most dangerous potential source of conflict between the two has been removed.
The delicacy of relations between the two countries is obvious. They are the two great powers in east Asia. They are the world's second and third largest economies in the world. Ever since the Sino-Japanese war in 1894-5, relations between the two have always been acrimonious, climaxing in the Japanese occupation of China. For over a century, Japan has had an extremely dim view of its neighbour, but China's rise is rapidly transforming the balance of power between the two countries in China's favour. Japan has grown increasingly anxious in response. The key question is whether Japan will be able to reconcile itself to China's emergence as the increasingly dominant power in the region. The agreement is the first positive sign so far that the two countries may be able to find a modus vivendi.
If 2008 has witnessed a serious improvement in relations with Japan, then those with Taiwan have been utterly transformed. The recent election of Ma Ying-jeou as president, and the sweeping victory of the KMT in the parliamentary elections in March, have created an entirely different atmosphere between the two countries. While Ma refuses to entertain the idea of reunification, he is determined to pursue much closer co-operation with China. Economic relations are likely to grow increasingly close while last week a new agreement was reached on extending tourism and enabling a major increase in direct flights. The Taiwanese public had grown weary of the nationalist Chen's desire to constantly provoke China, and increasingly concerned about the malaise that was engulfing the previously dynamic Taiwanese economy and its failure to foster closer relations with the soaring Chinese economy.
It is now not inconceivable that the China-Taiwan relationship can, for the foreseeable future, enter a relatively benign phase. It is unlikely that the longer-run problem of Taiwan's sovereignty can be resolved, but short of that it seems entirely possible that the two will enjoy an increasingly close relationship. Tourism could grow apace, flights across the Taiwan Straits become commonplace, and increasing economic integration appears inevitable. With the constant threat of a declaration of independence posed by the nationalists sidelined, then the Beijing leadership can pursue an increasingly pragmatic attitude towards Taiwan. In that context, it might even begin to entertain more imaginative solutions to the sovereignty question, other than simply a modified version of the Hong Kong "one country, two systems" formula. That lies far off in the future, but it no longer seems quite such an exercise in fantasy as it did before.
With relations between Japan and Taiwan improving rapidly, China's position in east Asia has been through a rapid metamorphosis compared with the situation that existed a decade ago when it was still largely isolated. It already enjoys an extremely good relationship with the Asean countries of south-east Asia, while South Korea has moved much closer to China. China is resuming its centuries-old position at the centre of east Asia.